UF head coach Jon Sumrall offers a thumbs up to fans prior to April's Orange & Blue Game.
Carter's Corner: Five Numbers That Point to Brighter Days for Gators
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 | Football, Scott Carter
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — If there's anything as common as 90-degree days and lazy afternoons spent on the banks of Lake Alice this summer, it's an abundance of optimism for Gators football fans.
One man is primarily responsible: Jonathan Edward Sumrall.
I was reminded of the fresh outlook a few days ago when, during an appearance on "Pod up with Matthews in the Morning," a podcast hosted by former UF quarterback Shane Matthews, he tossed a question my way about what had me most optimistic about the 2026 season.
And then on Tuesday, while discussing the Gators with former University of Miami and NFL defensive lineman Dan Sileo on his radio show in the Tampa Bay market, the optimism resurfaced.
So, let's run right up the middle and tackle these reasons for optimism. We all know it starts with Sumrall, who was hired in December to take over a program that has won just 23 of 50 games over the past four seasons.
I'm no math major, but that's not good. And since we're talking math, I'm going to use numbers to list the top five reasons I'm most optimistic about the Gators bouncing back strong in Sumrall's first season.
Will they make the College Football Playoff? I'm not ready to go that far. Will they be better than their 4-8 record last season? Definitely, if not, I will dress up as Albert and jog around Lake Alice on a hot summer day – as long as there is Gatorade available.
With that said, let's take a look at those five digits (no particular order) that have me certain that 2026 is going to be much more fun than 2025 was for Florida fans:
There are no easy schedules in the Southeastern Conference, especially when you are the Gators and have to play Georgia of the Kirby Smart Era each season. Still, after a brutal schedule that ranked at or near the top of most strength-of-schedule metrics the past two seasons, Florida's game-by-game outlook has a softer feel without in-state Miami from the past two years, and USF from a season ago. Sure, the Gators visit Auburn and Texas, and Oklahoma visits The Swamp in 2026, but so do FAU, Campbell and a Vanderbilt team without quarterback Diego Pavia. Meanwhile, for the first time since 1970, the Gators do not play LSU. That would have been a fun one with Lane Kiffin in charge of the Tigers, but Sumrall and Co. won't mind the break. Based on opponent won-loss records (88-65, .575) from a season ago, the Gators have the 28th-ranked schedule among FBS schools, hence the numerical reference.
One man is primarily responsible: Jonathan Edward Sumrall.
I was reminded of the fresh outlook a few days ago when, during an appearance on "Pod up with Matthews in the Morning," a podcast hosted by former UF quarterback Shane Matthews, he tossed a question my way about what had me most optimistic about the 2026 season.
And then on Tuesday, while discussing the Gators with former University of Miami and NFL defensive lineman Dan Sileo on his radio show in the Tampa Bay market, the optimism resurfaced.
So, let's run right up the middle and tackle these reasons for optimism. We all know it starts with Sumrall, who was hired in December to take over a program that has won just 23 of 50 games over the past four seasons.
I'm no math major, but that's not good. And since we're talking math, I'm going to use numbers to list the top five reasons I'm most optimistic about the Gators bouncing back strong in Sumrall's first season.
Will they make the College Football Playoff? I'm not ready to go that far. Will they be better than their 4-8 record last season? Definitely, if not, I will dress up as Albert and jog around Lake Alice on a hot summer day – as long as there is Gatorade available.
With that said, let's take a look at those five digits (no particular order) that have me certain that 2026 is going to be much more fun than 2025 was for Florida fans:
4
Sumrall has been a head coach for four seasons — two at Troy, and two at Tulane. He will step onto Spurrier/Florida Field for the season opener on Sept. 5 against FAU with a 43-12 career record. But more impressive than his won-loss record is that Sumrall has taken his team to a conference championship game in each of his four seasons as a head coach. He took Troy to the Sun Belt Championship Game twice, and Tulane to the American Conference Championship Game twice. He went 2-2, winning a conference title at each school. Sumrall knows how to build a winning team, and for a fan base that hasn't celebrated a conference championship in 18 years, that is a good reason to be optimistic.28
There are no easy schedules in the Southeastern Conference, especially when you are the Gators and have to play Georgia of the Kirby Smart Era each season. Still, after a brutal schedule that ranked at or near the top of most strength-of-schedule metrics the past two seasons, Florida's game-by-game outlook has a softer feel without in-state Miami from the past two years, and USF from a season ago. Sure, the Gators visit Auburn and Texas, and Oklahoma visits The Swamp in 2026, but so do FAU, Campbell and a Vanderbilt team without quarterback Diego Pavia. Meanwhile, for the first time since 1970, the Gators do not play LSU. That would have been a fun one with Lane Kiffin in charge of the Tigers, but Sumrall and Co. won't mind the break. Based on opponent won-loss records (88-65, .575) from a season ago, the Gators have the 28th-ranked schedule among FBS schools, hence the numerical reference.
11.4
True, I said I'm not a math major, and you're probably thinking I'm just showing off now, but there are no rules against decimal points in our list of optimism —first, an explanation. ESPN has used a metric called "SP+" to rank college football teams for a while now. You may have a question that leaves even my aunt Martha stumped, so I will let ESPN.com's Bill Connelly take the keyboard. In his words: What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. OK, now that that's out of the way, I can tell you Florida finished No. 63 last season with a 3.5 rating. That's not good, but here is some good news: UF checks in at No. 19 heading into the season with a 14.9 rating, a huge jump. In fact, UF's 11.4-rating increase ranks fifth nationally behind Oklahoma State (21.7), Virginia Tech (19.2), UCLA (13.6) and Syracuse (12.1). A common thread is that none of the top five was very good last season, and all but Syracuse changed head coaches. Still, the methodology puts a tangible number on Sumrall's arrival.16
As I've tried to make crystal clear here — if not, then maybe I'm not that good with words either — my math skills are similar to a 2-year-old's driving ability. And I'm also not a sports gambler, so betting odds beyond point spreads often confuse me. Oh, and this needs to be said since I'm not even allowed to gamble as a UAA employee – I do not endorse wasting your hard-earned money on whether Jadan Baugh scores his first TD of the season with the ball tucked in his left or right arm. But if that's your thing, and goodness knows the gambling industry spends a ton on advertising, the Gators are +5000 to win the national championship. Since, according to FanDuel, Ohio State is the favorite at +550, I'm math-efficient enough to know Florida is considered a bit of a longshot. But when you look closer, the Gators are tied for 16th with Tennessee on the odds list. But this is where it gets interesting. Of the top 16 teams on FanDuel's list of odds, Florida is the only team that did not win at least eight games a season ago. Hmm. Las Vegas really likes this Sumrall guy.1,170
Regardless of how you break down Florida's outlook for 2026 and the start of the Sumrall Era, there is an important factor that cannot be overlooked. That is the return of Baugh, whose 1,170 yards rushing last season were the most by a UF tailback since Mike Gillislee's 1,152 in 2012. Baugh's breakout season was the seventh-best single-season total in school history, and should Baugh match that total in 2026, he would move past Tim Tebow (2,947) into sixth on the program's career-rushing list. Baugh was at his best in a 266-yard performance in the regular-season finale against Florida State, and his return provides Sumrall with a proven veteran to lean on with a pair of young quarterbacks, a revamped offensive line and a defense that has talent but some question marks. The key is for Baugh to stay healthy and serve as a constant safety net for new offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner.
Players Mentioned
RB
/ FootballThursday, June 11
Thursday, April 30
Wednesday, April 29
Saturday, April 11
